The Kano State member of the House of Representatives, Abdulmumin Jibrin, reawakened the debate about regional hegemony over Nigeria when he stated that the North has been in control of Nigeria for around 39 and a half years compared to 28 for the South.
While speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Jibrin made another point about facts and facts about Nigeria’s history in politics. According to him, the impactful time for Nigeria starts in 1960 with the year of independence. He strongly criticized anyone who said Nigeria’s democratic journey started in 1999, because to Jibrin, this was disrespectful to previous Northern Heads of State. At this point, he reminded viewers of some relevant timelines: Gowon was in power for nine years, Shagari for four, Babangida for eight, Abacha for five, Yar’Adua for three, Buhari in total, ten years for two terms, and some other leaders not mentioned in the current dispensation were there too.
His timeline, however, is a reflection of quotes by political analysts and regional experts. In other words, history and statistical reflection tells us that during the last 62 years of independence, the North has had significant executive power.
To the best of our knowledge, the North has had federal power for 45 years out of the 65 years, while the South has had power for just under 20 years. This time does not separate military rule compared to civilian rule, and the North has had federal executive power longer than any other region.” The breakdown generally indicates North-West leaders being in office for over 22 years, while the South-West, South-South and South-East combined were part of a small minority.
A further nuanced analysis identified that, in total, from 1960 to 2025, the North produced 10 heads of state for around 45 years, whereas the South produced 6 heads for approximately 19.5 years only.
While it can easily be demonstrated that the North dominates leadership positions, a larger social, economic and political complexity emerges:
Developmental Disparities: Regardless of their political prominence, the North is delineated as the most illiterate and poor region of Nigeria. For example, some of the major states in the North, including Kano, Kwara and Plateau, still have literacy rates below 50%, yet many Southern states are in well above 60%, with Lagos declared at above 90%.
Economic and Structural Factors: Multiple analysts and commentators have pointed to, among other factors, the inability to develop ports, undercapitalisation in its development, colonial priorities which favoured the South, and many of the mistakes that were inherited at independence, and exacerbated the North’s development issues. Some have suggested that cultural and systemic barriers contributed. However, they also note that the right priority should be the national purpose of building forward even though we are one people. The Widening Political Horizon of Jibrin
Jibrin’s recent statements follow the larger trend of political entanglement with President Bola Tinubu and the continuing operationalization of the NNPP’s political agenda:
Tinubu – Not Without Regional Support: Despite insinuations of diminishing support in certain sections of Northern terrain Jibrin dismissed the idea of Tinubu being without even a minor base in the North and characterized the assumptions as “dangerous” before going on to further claim that the President has support in every section of the country.
Possibly Reconciling: Jibrin hinted at possibly transitioning back to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in mid-2025 after meeting with President Tinubu. He offered no commitment, but he did indicate all options may be considered but depending on national stability and unity.
Elections: He further argued there may be an arrangement for Tinubu to finish the informal eight-year term claimed by the South and continue to explore a functioning relationship with politicians potentially represented by Rabiu Kwankwaso.
In some respects, the timing and context of Jibrin’s reply about the “power balance” will have some potential political ramifications.
Agreement to History: By reasserting that Nigeria’s democratic journey began with the first Republic of 1960, Jibrin formulates the historical legitimacy Northern leadership has had and counters attempts to subsequently reimagine the narrative from 1999 to the present.
Bridging the Divide: He positions himself to have an engaging space of practical politics, as he insists on addressing historical context, but allows room for a negotiation space to engage across party lines for some stability.